Can President Barack Obama be defeated in 2012? It is fair to say that there are a substantial number of Republican "hopefuls" that are wondering the same thing.
The one issue that can cause President Obama distress in the 2012 election is the "economy". The status of the economy over the rest of 2011 will loom large over how any Republican candidate may do against the sitting President next year.
Unemployment will remain at or near double digit levels even when calculated by some arcane and weighted algorithm which leaves out those that are no longer looking for work. Most people would feel more comfortable knowing the unvarnished number which falls closer to 16%.
Additional Jobs need to be and must be created. Some jobs have already returned to the workplace. The caveat regarding these new jobs is that in most cases the jobs are at a lower wage scale and most jobs have reduced benefits. Families have a difficult time realizing the "American Dream" on $25,000 instead of $60,000 per year.
One need only look at the Boeing Corporation and their recent entry into South Carolina. No Unions and lower wages mean more profits and cheaper costs! Several thousand jobs have been created in South Carolina probably at the expense of Washington State and more precisely the Unions!
Will Obama gain votes in one State and lose votes in another, a real possibility.
Money wins elections and 2012 will be a record year for fundraising. The "pols" are already busy collecting dollars. The Republicans will need to do more than just speak of deficits and spending cuts. The Republicans will need to bring to the table a concrete, cogent plan that will reduce spending, cut the defict and not create a higher level of pain for millions on the verge of an apocalyptic collapse.
It would be refreshing to hear reasonable people speak of reasonable solutions. Currently I would give the edge to President Barack Obama regaining the White House for an additional four years.
I would also think the Republicans might win additional seats in the United States Senate and actually lose some in the House of Representaives, but not an overall majority in the House.
Divided Government may be the best solution to resolving our economic woes. Those on the fringes ought not have too much influence. Reasonable people in both Political Parties will hopefully prevail.
The reality is innovation and entrepreneurship will be the elixirs to get our Nation back on track. Oh! And in addition, get the hell out of Iraq and Afghanistan! What could this nation do with the trillion or so dollars spent over there?
Yes, President Obama could be defeated next year, however Republicans should not count on it.